Iran Defence Spendings: The ceasefire between Iran and the US announced on April 8 could push many Gulf countries to rethink what kind of weapons they need most. For years, some of these countries had reduced focus on missiles and air defence systems. Now that may change.
Recent buying data already shows that Gulf countries were not all moving in the same direction before this conflict. In the United Arab Emirates, missile imports slowed in 2021-25. Spending on air defence also dropped a lot.
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Its share fell from 19.6% to 10.2%. Qatar also followed a similar path. Missile imports there went down by almost 30%, and their share dropped from 31% in 2016-20 to 11.4% in 2021-25. Oman saw an even weaker picture in this area. Missile imports became very small, while spending on air defence systems was basically not there.
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain Changing course
Not every country was cutting back. Some had already started putting more weight on missile and air defence systems even before the latest war. Bahrain is one clear example. Its missile imports jumped by nearly ten times between 2016-20 and 2021-25. Air defence systems also appeared as a new import category and made up 6.8% of total imports. Saudi Arabia also increased attention on these areas. Its missile imports nearly doubled, and their share rose from 12.5% to 19.8%. Air defence imports grew even faster, climbing from 5.9% to 13.5%.
At the same time, the region has been buying fewer aircraft than before. In Saudi Arabia, the share of aircraft imports fell from 59.9% to 39.2%. This suggests a gradual move away from very costly big platforms and towards systems that are faster to use and more flexible during sudden attacks. Iran may also shift in this direction. In 2021-25, its military imports were focused only on aircraft. After the recent war, it may now look harder at missiles and air defence systems to better protect itself from future strikes.
Weak points and supply problems
The latest conflict seems likely to speed up this change. Missiles and drones were used heavily, and that put major stress on air defence networks across the region. This has made weak spots easier to see. Countries now know that if another conflict starts, they may need much stronger protection in the sky and on the ground.
So even though a ceasefire may calm things for now, the military lesson from the war is still very clear. Missile defence and air defence can no longer be treated like side issues.
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There is also another problem. Supply may not keep up with demand. Defence companies could get more orders as countries rush to buy new systems. But the US is also trying to refill its own stock after using large numbers of high-end missiles during the war. An earlier Moneycontrol analysis, citing CSIS and other sources, said more than 850 Tomahawk missiles had already been used. It described this as the biggest use of Tomahawks in any single campaign. For comparison, the 2003 Iraq War saw 802 Tomahawks fired, while Operation Poseidon Archer against the Houthis in 2024 used around 130.
The same report said Bloomberg had reported that more than 1,000 JASSM-ER missiles were used in the first four weeks of the war. That reportedly cut available stock from about 2,300 before the war to around 425.
It also said estimates cited by ABC News, based on analysis from the Payne Institute for Public Policy, showed that nearly 46% of the US Army’s ATACMS inventory may already have been used up. Defensive systems are also under strain. THAAD interceptors, which are used against incoming ballistic missiles, could fall sharply in number, with some estimates saying stock may run out as early as mid-April if the same usage pace continues.
